RiskGraph
Travel demo ↗Refund evidence ↗

SAME CASES · SAME RESPONSE FORMAT

Which safeguard actually helps?

Haiku and Sonnet on identical hard trips. Memory and the same Sonnet reviewer are each switched off and on.

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Current recordsHaiku / Sonnet+ memory off / onReviewer off / onFixed gate

Risk before the gate

Points show posterior means; lines show marginal 95% credible intervals. A zero observed loss count still has uncertainty.

Observed counts and risk intervals

What changes risk?

Paired differences on the same trips. Positive means reduced risk; negative means increased risk. An interval crossing zero is inconclusive.

Avoided errors, introduced errors and paired intervals
Loss amounts and unresolved outcomes

Assumed cancellation costs, full nonrefundable fares, or a price discrepancy. These are synthetic proposed exposures; no real booking or payment is possible. Unknown losses retain a $0–$1,000 sensitivity range.

Methods, memory provenance and conservative bounds

Full protocol and reproducible analysis ↗